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Final Predictions From The Latest Finance Reports

Here is a spreadsheet with a summary of the fundraising data.

MAYOR

This is still a 3 horse race. Caroline has still by far raised the most money and there is no denying the advantage that gives her, although the advantage is not as great when you consider she started with very little name recognition compared to her opponents. She has raised $421k, Mary-Ann is the next closest at $264k. However, Mary-Ann’s numbers really go to show the support she has in Raleigh. This reporting period she raised $83k and $75k of that (90%) came from donors in Raleigh. Of the $120k that Caroline raised this period, only $37k (31%) came from donors in Raleigh. Caroline held a fundraiser in NYC hosted by Hillary Clinton on the last day of the reporting period, so that is one of the big reasons for her high fundraising numbers and why a large percentage came from outside of Raleigh. Charles Francis’ fundraising efforts seem to have lost some steam. He raised $32k this period (61% from Raleigh donors). Charles and Caroline have also already burned through a lot of their cash. Charles has $86k on hand and Caroline has $58k left. As of this report, Mary-Ann still has $166k in the bank which shows her strategy is to make a splash right before the election when the most people are paying attention. I’m guessing she’s also planning ahead for a runoff. While I’m not aware of any recent polling data, my gut feeling is we will see a runoff between Charles and Mary-Ann.


AT-LARGE

Not a lot has changed since the first finance report. Jonathan has strong fundraising numbers and raised the most money this reporting period, which means he is going to put up a strong challenge to Russ (The N&O and Indy endorsements helped, of course). I would be surprised if Nicole doesn’t get the most votes next Tuesday. I also think we will see a runoff between Russ and Jonathan.


DISTRICT A

As I predicted in my first analysis, Patrick has really pulled ahead of Sam when it comes to fundraising since a major source of Sam’s money continues to be his family. Sam was virtually unknown when he entered the race so I, and I’m sure many others, have been trying to figure out his motives and where his alliances would fall if he were elected. If there were any doubts in my mind before that he would be friendly with the NIMBY alliance, they have been put to rest by the fact that Dean Debnam maxed out Sam this period with a $5400 donation (Dean’s previous beneficiaries are Charles, Russ, Stef, and David Cox). He has also received a donation from Tim Niles (David Cox’s #1 fan) and Donna Bailey (another big fan of the NIMBY alliance). Patrick seems to be in a good position to win this race given his fundraising numbers and his endorsements including Nancy McFarlane and Dickie Thompson.


DISTRICT B

This race is one where I have a hard time making a prediction. When it comes to money, Brian has raised almost 3x as much as David, so without a doubt, Brian is putting up a strong fight. However, David has a lot of support in his district and last election his district voted for Francis over McFarlane for Mayor. I have a feeling this is will be a very close race on election night.


DISTRICT C

Corey didn’t start raising money or campaigning until after the filing period. He still hasn’t done much, but he is doing enough that I can’t see him losing this election given that no one has emerged as a strong challenger.


DISTRICT D

Saige continues to be a strong threat to Kay. He raised almost $17k this reporting period for a total of $96k compared to $7.5k for Kay this period with a total of $57k raised this election cycle. Kay still has the advantage that she had $30k in the bank leftover from the last election cycle. The question is, how much support does Kay really have and is she running an effective campaign? Saige is a pro at campaigning and has a very strong staff. There are two other challengers in this race, however. Brittany Bryan has raised a total of $24.5k but only raised $175 this reporting period (maybe the N&O endorsement will give her a slight boost). Support seems to have really cemented behind Saige and I think any votes for Brittany (or April) just help to ensure that Saige makes it to a runoff against Kay.


DISTRICT E

Wow. Obviously, a lot of people want to see Stef out of office. David Knight has raised way more than any other candidate in every race, except for the 3 top contenders for Mayor. $150k compared to $44k raised by Stef. Assuming David spends all that money in impactful ways, he should win. If he doesn’t win, that probably means the YIMBYs had a very bad election night.


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